Mariana Solis doesn't exist, but the dilemma she represents is real enough. This is a hypothetical conversation with a composite HVAC contractor whose business model depends on people staying in a city that recorded 602 heat-related deaths last year¹ and just set a March temperature record that has everyone wondering if summer 2025 will be survivable². If you're thinking this feels like a thought experiment about the ethics of climate adaptation, you're right. That's exactly what it is.

We met at her shop in South Phoenix on a Tuesday morning in late October, the kind of day when the temperature still hits 95 by noon and you remember that "cooling season" now means basically year-round. Her truck was already loaded for service calls. The dispatch board behind her desk showed twelve appointments before 3 PM.

You started Cool Equity HVAC in 2019. What made you focus specifically on low-income neighborhoods?

I grew up in Maryvale. My abuela died in 2018 during a heat wave. Her AC had been broken for three weeks and she kept saying she'd get it fixed when she had the money. She was 71.

I found out later there were programs that could have helped her, but she didn't know about them. And honestly? The HVAC companies weren't exactly rushing to serve her neighborhood anyway. Most contractors want the North Scottsdale jobs, the whole-system replacements in houses with three AC units. More money there, cleaner work, customers who pay on time.

But the people dying from heat in Phoenix? They're not in North Scottsdale³. They're in the neighborhoods where I grew up, where the houses are older, the trees are smaller, the pavement is everywhere. So I thought, okay, I know this community, I speak Spanish, I know how to work with the assistance programs. Maybe I can actually keep people alive.

Six years later, are you?

She takes a long time to answer this one.

Yes. And also maybe no.

In the immediate sense, absolutely. I've had customers tell me, "You saved my life," and they're not being dramatic. Last July I did an emergency repair for an elderly couple whose system had been down for two days. It was 113 outside. They were sleeping in their car at night because it was cooler. Got them back up and running. That's real. That matters.

But then I drive home and I'm thinking... I just enabled them to stay in a house that's going to be unlivable in ten years. Maybe five. Am I helping them or am I helping them cook slower?

That's pretty dark.

It's honest. You want to know what keeps me up at night? It's not the business stuff. I've got more work than I can handle, the demand is insane.

What keeps me up is that I've gotten really, really good at a job that maybe shouldn't exist. Or that should exist differently. I don't know.

Walk me through what you mean.

Okay, so. The federal tax credits for high-efficiency HVAC systems? They expire December 31st⁴. Up to $3,200 back on your taxes for upgrading. That's huge for my customers. Often the difference between affording an upgrade or limping along with a failing system. So right now I'm booked solid through the end of the year with people trying to beat that deadline.

And I'm installing these beautiful, efficient systems. Twenty, thirty percent better than what they had. Lower electric bills, better cooling, the whole thing. I'm doing good work.

But here's what I know and they don't, or they don't want to think about: these systems I'm installing are going to run basically continuously from May through September now⁵. Maybe April through October soon, given that we hit 99 degrees in March this year². The efficiency gains get eaten by the fact that the AC never turns off anymore.

And the people I serve? They're already in the neighborhoods with the worst heat island effect. Ten degrees hotter than the wealthy areas on summer days⁶. They can't afford to move.

So I'm helping them invest thousands of dollars to stay in place while the place becomes uninhabitable.

But what's the alternative? Let their AC fail and they die?

Right! Exactly. That's the trap.

In the short term, my work is absolutely necessary. Life-saving, even. But in the long term... she trails off, then laughs bitterly I'm basically a hospice worker for neighborhoods. I'm making them comfortable while they die.

That sounds melodramatic. But 602 people died from heat in Phoenix last year¹. Down from 645 the year before, which everyone celebrated like it was good news. We're celebrating 602 heat deaths. And most of those deaths? They're in exactly the communities I serve. Elderly, unhoused, people with substance use issues, people in poorly insulated houses they can't afford to leave.

Have you thought about leaving Phoenix yourself?

She laughs. Where would I go? This is my home. My family is here. My business is here. And honestly, someone needs to do this work. If I leave, who keeps these ACs running?

But yeah, I think about it. Especially this year. That March heat wave was different. That was the moment when I thought, oh, we're not talking about 2040 anymore. This is happening now. Summer 2025 might be the one where we cross some invisible line and everyone suddenly realizes Phoenix is cooked. Literally.

What would that look like? The crossing-the-line moment?

I don't know. Maybe when the power grid can't handle the load and we get rolling blackouts during a heat wave. Maybe when heat deaths hit a thousand in a summer and people finally pay attention. Maybe when insurance companies stop covering heat-related claims or property values collapse in certain neighborhoods.

Or maybe—and this is what I actually think will happen—there is no single moment. It'll just be this slow realization that Phoenix has two classes of people: the ones who can afford to live here comfortably, with backup generators and perfect climate control and enough money to leave when they want, and everyone else who's trapped.

So why not change your business model? Focus on something else?

Like what? Solar installation? That's the obvious pivot, right? Help people generate their own power so they're not dependent on the grid.

Except solar panels in Phoenix heat actually lose efficiency above certain temperatures. And the people I serve, they're renters or they're in houses that need a new roof before you can even think about solar. The economics don't work.

I've thought about shifting to focus on wealthy clients. Take the North Scottsdale jobs, make more money, serve people who have options. But that feels like abandoning the people who actually need me. And it doesn't solve the moral problem, it just outsources it. I'd still be enabling people to stay in an unsustainable place, just richer people.

The honest answer is I don't know what the right move is. Keep doing what I'm doing and accept that I'm part of a system that's fundamentally broken? Or walk away and let someone else do it, probably worse?

You mentioned the federal tax credits expiring. Are you pushing your customers to act before the deadline?

She shifts uncomfortably.

Yeah, I am. Because the credits are real money and my customers need every break they can get. But I also know I'm creating artificial urgency. Like, "Get your AC replaced before December 31st or lose $3,200!" And people are making rushed decisions, taking on debt, because of a deadline that's completely arbitrary from their perspective.

Some of them ask me, "Should I really do this now? Should I wait?" And I want to say, "Maybe you should be thinking about whether you want to be in Phoenix in five years."

But that's not my job. My job is to keep their AC running. So I tell them about the tax credit and help them figure out financing and install a system that'll run beautifully for the next fifteen years, which might be longer than their neighborhood is livable.

That's pretty bleak.

It is what it is. I'm not trying to be a philosopher. I'm trying to run a business and serve my community and not think too hard about the fact that my entire industry exists because we've made a city of five million people in the desert where summer temperatures regularly hit 115 degrees⁵.

Sometimes I wonder if we'll look back at this era—the 2020s, the 2030s—and think, "What were they doing? Why were they installing AC systems and refinancing mortgages and acting like Phoenix was a permanent city?"

Like, future generations will see us the way we see people who built on floodplains or bought beachfront property at sea level. Obviously doomed, but everyone pretending otherwise because the alternative was too overwhelming to face.

And I'm not exempt from that. I'm part of the pretending. Every system I install is a vote for "Phoenix is fine, we can handle this, just needs better AC."

But I don't actually believe that anymore.

So what keeps you doing it?

Long pause.

Because the people are real. The heat is real. The deaths are real. And in the time between now and whenever Phoenix becomes truly unlivable, people need to not die. That's it. That's the whole calculation.

Maybe I'm just rationalizing. Maybe I'm profiting from a disaster I know is coming. But when I get a call from someone whose AC failed and they're scared and it's 110 degrees, I'm not thinking about the ethics of climate adaptation. I'm thinking about getting their system running before they end up as one of those heat death statistics.

So I keep installing systems. And I keep wondering if I'm helping.

Footnotes

1. https://www.azfamily.com/2025/03/26/phoenix-hopes-save-more-lives-with-2025-heat-response-plan/ ↩ ↩²

2. https://www.azfamily.com/2025/03/26/phoenix-hopes-save-more-lives-with-2025-heat-response-plan/ ↩ ↩²

3. https://www.phoenix.gov/content/dam/phoenix/heatsite/documents/FINAL - 2025 HEAT RESPONSE PLAN.pdf ↩

4. https://www.idealairaz.com/blog/when-is-the-right-time-to-replace-your-ac-in-arizonas-climate/ ↩

5. https://www.idealairaz.com/blog/when-is-the-right-time-to-replace-your-ac-in-arizonas-climate/ ↩ ↩²

6. https://www.phoenix.gov/content/dam/phoenix/heatsite/documents/FINAL - 2025 HEAT RESPONSE PLAN.pdf ↩